Writing

Same Issuer, Two Prices? A Microstructure Analysis of China's MTN-Corp Basis

China's credit bond market has a unique feature: the same issuer can issue Medium-Term Notes in the interbank market and public corporate bonds on the exchange—with potentially different prices for identical credit risk. I analyzed 31 pairs and 9,000+ observations. The Basis exists but is thin—what's interesting is the cross-sectional dispersion and the primary-secondary market divergence.

2026-04-22Fixed IncomeCredit Bonds

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The Anatomy of a Takedown: Market Microstructure Signals in Micron's Post-Earnings Collapse

MU reported the best earnings in the history of US semiconductors. The stock fell 24.6% — then recovered. A forensic read of the options tape, CEO trading disclosures, institutional positioning, and the information architecture around Google's TurboQuant points to something more structured than panic selling. Updated with post-publication price action and 10-Q disclosures.

2026-04-09equitiesmicrostructure

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Monitoring US Treasury Supply-Demand with AI: A Practical Framework

Treasury supply hit record highs, but consensus is too comfortable. ON RRP exhausted, basis trade leverage $1-2T, foreign buyers shifting from official to private—buffers are disappearing. This article shares how a multi-agent system tracks these marginal changes.

2026-03-31AI AgentUS Treasury

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